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Working Papers
Aug 26, 2016 Brian M. Jenkins and John Lauder: The Nuclear Terrorism Threat: How Real Is It? (Working Paper 1602)
 NPEC Working Paper 1602, “The Nuclear Terrorism Threat: How Real Is It?” presents two opposed views on the threat of nuclear terrorism. Brian M. Jenkins, a Rand analyst and a leading expert on nuclear terrorism, argues that the threat is overblown. John Lauder,  former director of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Nonproliferation Center, argues the opposing case that the threat is growing and we need to be hedging against it now.
Aug 26, 2016 How Dark Might East Asia's Nuclear Future Be? (Working Paper 1601)
NPEC Working Paper 1601, “How Dark Might East Asia’s Nuclear Future Be?” contains detailed projections of what the future holds for a more nuclear-armed China, Japan, North Korea and South Korea. None are predictions. The volume’s purpose is to encourage deeper debate about the security implications of nuclear proliferation in East Asia.
Jan 06, 2016 Alternative North Korean Nuclear Futures
National Defense University's Shane Smith gives the big picture on North Korea's nuclear ambitions in a piece commissioned by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center.   
May 05, 2015 If Japan and South Korea Go Nuclear: Two Military-Technical Scenarios
Recently, NPEC commissioned a series of major studies to explore how technologically feasible and quick nuclear weapons proliferation in East Asia might be. The studies on Japan and South Korea are showcased below.    
Sep 28, 2014 Greg Jones: Ensuring the Iran Negotiations Do Not Promote the Spread of Nuclear Weapons
NPEC Senior Researcher Greg Jones argues the P5+1 should toughen its stance and demand that Iran give up all centrifuge enrichment, dismantle the Arak reactor, give up its heavy water stocks, and dismantle its heavy water production facility.  He argues that allowing Iran to retain its nuclear capabilities can inflict enduring damage on broader U.S. nonproliferation efforts by legitimizing centrifuge enrichment or heavy water plutonium production reactors for other countries as well, making it easy for them to produce nuclear material for weapons whenver they desire them.
May 05, 2014 Greg Jones: Washington's "Comprehensive Solution" to Iran's Nuclear Program: Destined to be Neither
Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program are continuing in an effort to produce a follow-on agreement, termed the “Comprehensive Solution,” to the November 2013 “Joint Plan of Action” (JPA).  Much of the discussion of the Comprehensive Solution has focused on the terms such an agreement should include to prevent Iran from being able to produce nuclear weapons.  However, this objective will not be attainable unless the agreement addresses key aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, fixes the flaws in the JPA which seriously constrain any agreement and recognizes fundamental problems with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards as currently implemented.
Feb 25, 2014 Victor Gilinsky and Henry Sokolski: Serious Rules for Nuclear Power without Proliferation (Working Paper 1302)
Victor Gilinsky, former Commissioner of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of NPEC, propose five nonproliferation principles to establish a framework for dealing with the main deficiencies in the current NPT regime.  This is a preprint of an article whose final and definitive form has been published in The Nonproliferation Review, © 2014 Taylor & Francis; The Nonproliferation Review is available at: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10736700.2014.880268
Feb 21, 2014 Mark Stokes: China's Future Nuclear Force Infrastructure: A Notional Breakout Scenario
Written for NPEC's East Asian Alternative Nuclear Weapons Futures Conference held February 25-26, 2014. 
Sep 10, 2013 Greg Jones: Tehran Could Get Its First Bomb Now in Just Six Short Weeks
  In various papers since 2008, this author has outlined how Iran’s growing centrifuge enrichment program could provide it with the ability to produce Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and thereby the ability to manufacture nuclear weapons. On August 28, 2013, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published its latest safeguards update which shows that Iran is continuing to expand its enrichment program.     
May 30, 2013 Greg Jones: Iranian Uranium Enrichment Passes into Israel's Redline
In various papers since 2008, this author has outlined how Iran's growing centrifuge enrichment program could provide it with the ability to produce Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and thereby the ability to manufacture nuclear weapons. On May 22, 2013, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published its latest safeguards update, which shows that Iran has continued the rapid expansion of its enrichment program. 
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The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC), is a 501 (c)3 nonpartisan, nonprofit, educational organization
founded in 1994 to promote a better understanding of strategic weapons proliferation issues. NPEC educates policymakers, journalists,
and university professors about proliferation threats and possible new policies and measures to meet them.
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